Joel Farabee

Calgary Flames · LW · #86

ANA @ CGY · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1575 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 at home).

at VGK, 2026-10-15: 1, cleared, 20.4 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 1, cleared, 19.8 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 18.9 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 18.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 2, cleared, 24.1 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 16.8 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 3, cleared, 15.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 17.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 20.2 min
at SEA, 2026-11-04: 0, missed, 19.9 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
ANA allow 8.00 points a game to forwards: 2nd most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 9.20, 2nd most
Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 23 of 43; with him: 18 of 50 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 15 of 22; with him: 28 of 76 (98 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Lukas Dostal (Expected)
Saves: 226 of 263 (.859) over his last 10 games · 4 of ANA's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ANA in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 7 of 9 against ANA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Matvei GridinRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ANA

Points: 1 in 20.4 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against ANA on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −157
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1575 books	+1101 book	7/10
+2855 books	pick'em only	3/10
+11002 books	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings15 min ago	−150Best	+110Best
Bally Bet15 min ago	−157	—
betPARX4 min ago	−157	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−157	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−164	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:52 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−148 → −157 since first seen

Joel Farabee's full game log and splits