Joel Farabee
ANA @ CGY · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Under 2.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.
What's different today
Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 30 of 43; with him: 38 of 50 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 15 of 22; with him: 57 of 76 (98 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Lukas Dostal (Expected)
Saves: 226 of 263 (.859) over his last 10 games · 4 of ANA's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
ANA allow 20.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 14th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 20.8, 12th most
Splits
Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ANA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 9 against ANA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 2.5 · L10Matt CoronatoRW
Matvei GridinRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs ANA
Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.4 min, Oct 13 (away)
Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against ANA on record
L10 · Under 2.5
- Average
- 2.2
- −0.3 vs line
- Median
- 2.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 64%
- at −175
- Books’ fair
- 59%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −136
Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −13003 books | — | 0/10 | |
| −2253 books | — | 3/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 3/10 | |
| +1206 books | −1754 books | 5/10 | |
| +3403 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +7501 book | — | 10/10 | |
| +17001 book | — | 10/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings10 min ago | +125 | −170Best |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +130 | −170Best |
| Bally Bet10 min ago | +120 | −175 |
| betPARX1 min ago | +120 | −175 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +120 | — |
| Bovada9 min ago | +146Best | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:07 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Under: −196 → −175 since first seen