Joel Eriksson Ek

Minnesota Wild · C · #14

MIN @ PHI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1755 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 7 on the road).

at WPG, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 18.3 min
vs STL, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 23.2 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 1, cleared, 21.3 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 22.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 23.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 15.1 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 21.4 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 17.2 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 19.6 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L10

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Matchup · 16 games

PHI allow 6.69 points a game to forwards: 12th most of 32

Rest

1 day off since Nov 1 at WSH

Last vs PHI

Points: 0 in 22.8 min, Mar 12 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against PHI on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −159, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1755 books	+1201 book	8/10
+2755 books	—	3/10
+9005 books	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings11 min ago	−165Best	+120Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−166	—
Bally Bet11 min ago	−175	—
betPARX5 min ago	−175	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−175	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −186 → −175 since first seen