Jake Sanderson

Ottawa Senators · D · #85

OTT @ BUF · Tomorrow 7:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1912 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: 0 of 1 (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 0 of 3; with him: 12 of 14 (17 games as teammates)
Defense vs defensemen
BUF allow 6.4 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 28th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 7.5, 19th most

50%5 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 on the road).

at CAR, 2026-04-20: 2, cleared, 43.1 min
vs CAR, 2026-04-23: 1, missed, 13.3 min
at TOR, 2026-10-03: 0, missed, 4.5 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 4, cleared, 22.6 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 26.2 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 22.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 4, cleared, 26.6 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 29.3 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 22.8 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 24 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 4 of 7 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Shane PintoC
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Sanderson didn't play the Apr 2 meeting; shots on goal the last time Sanderson faced them: 1 (Dec 23, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −191
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Time on ice: 23.5; 10 games · 25 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 62%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10482 books	—	8/10
−1912 books	+1461 book	5/10
+1622 books	—	2/10
+3902 books	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada4 min ago	−190Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	−192	+146Best

Prices as of 10:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −165 → −191 since first seen

Jake Sanderson's full game log and splits