Jake Guentzel

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #59

CHI @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1267 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

at NYI, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 18.7 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 19.4 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 19.1 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 18.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 0, hit, 22.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 19.5 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 22.9 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 25.9 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 19.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Arvid Soderblom (Expected)
Saves: 268 of 307 (.873) over his last 10 games · 1 of CHI's last 10 starts · Spencer Knight started 9
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 0.5 without him: 9 of 14; with him: 46 of 88 (102 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
CHI allow 4.13 assists a game to forwards: 7th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 4.00, 9th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 22 min · 2026–27: 20.7 (14 games)
Power play: 5.4 min last 5 · 4.9 2026–27

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Brandon HagelLW
Brayden PointC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CHI

Assists: 0 in 22.4 min, Jan 23 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against CHI on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −126
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1187 books	−1262 books	7/10
+5003 books	—	10/10
+15002 books	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings6 min ago	−120	−110Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	−105	−126
Bally Bet6 min ago	−118	—
betPARXjust now	−121	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−121	—
Bovada11 min ago	−103Best	—
FanDuel1 min ago	−108	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Jake Guentzel's full game log and splits