Jake Guentzel

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #59

CHI @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1596 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

at NYI, 2026-10-10: 4, cleared, 19.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 18.7 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 2, missed, 19.4 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 19.1 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 18.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 22.2 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 19.5 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 6, cleared, 22.9 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 25.9 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 19.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Arvid Soderblom (Expected)
Saves: 268 of 307 (.873) over his last 10 games · 1 of CHI's last 10 starts · Spencer Knight started 9
TodayDefense vs forwards
CHI allow 22.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: 2nd most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 23.5, 2nd most
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 2.5 without him: 6 of 14; with him: 44 of 88 (102 games as teammates)
Time on ice
Last 5: 22 min · 2026–27: 20.7 (14 games)
Power play: 5.4 min last 5 · 4.9 2026–27

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Brandon HagelLW
Brayden PointC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CHI

Shots on Goal: 3 in 22.4 min, Jan 23 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against CHI on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Time on ice: 20.5; 10 games · 20.4 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 57%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25001 book	—	8/10
−5002 books	—	7/10
−1596 books	+1155 books	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/10
+1452 books	—	3/10
+3102 books	—	2/10
+6501 book	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle17 min ago	−143Best	+108
FanDuel3 min ago	−156	+122Best
betPARX3 min ago	−159	+112
BetRivers4 min ago	−159	—
DraftKings17 min ago	−160	+120
Bally Bet17 min ago	−162	+115
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:29 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Jake Guentzel's full game log and splits