Jack Roslovic

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #96

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1853 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
John Tavares: Out (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 4 of 9; with him: 7 of 7 (16 games as teammates)
TonightOpposing goalie
Sebastian Cossa (Confirmed)
Saves: 54 of 65 (.831) over his last 4 games · 2 of UTAH's last 10 starts · Karel Vejmelka started 8
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 0 of 2; with him: 11 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 1.5 without him: 11 of 16; with him: no games (16 games as teammates)

44%4 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 4 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at ANA, 2026-04-24: 1, missed, 14.8 min (not counted)
at ANA, 2026-04-26: 2, cleared, 13.3 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-04-28: 2, cleared, 12.3 min (not counted)
at ANA, 2026-04-30: 1, missed, 14.4 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 2, cleared, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 2, cleared, 14.9 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 2, cleared, 14.8 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 4, cleared, 17.8 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 3, cleared, 17.5 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 5, cleared, 15.4 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 2, cleared, 17.6 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 5, cleared, 19.1 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 5, cleared, 15.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 15.2 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 15.7 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 16 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 15.6 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 18.7 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 17.5 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 17.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCOut
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 2 in 17.6 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 1.5

Average: 2.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 44%; 4 of 9
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −164

Research, not a pick. At −185 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −164, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9102 books	—	8/9
−1853 books	+1353 books	4/9
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/9
+1435 books	−2052 books	3/9
+3802 books	—	2/9
+8501 book	—	2/9
+20001 book	—	0/9

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings12 min ago	−185Best	+135
Pinnacle3 min ago	−185Best	+135
FanDuel2 min ago	−192	+146Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

2.5 → 1.5 since first seen

Jack Roslovic's full game log and splits