Jack Roslovic

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #96

MTL @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1247 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L20 · Without Tavares

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of 10 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at ANA, 2026-04-26: 0, missed, 13.3 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-04-28: 0, missed, 12.3 min (not counted)
at ANA, 2026-04-30: 0, missed, 14.4 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 0, missed, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 1, cleared, 14.9 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 0, missed, 14.8 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 2, cleared, 17.8 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 1, cleared, 17.5 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 15.4 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 17.6 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 1, cleared, 19.1 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 15.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 15.2 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 15.7 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 16 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 15.6 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 18.7 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 17.5 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 17.7 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 18.3 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
John Tavares: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 7 of 10; with him: 5 of 7 (17 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 3; with him: 9 of 14 (17 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 0.5 without him: 12 of 17; with him: no games (17 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jacob Fowler (Expected)
Saves: 249 of 270 (.922) over his last 10 games · 6 of MTL's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCInjured Reserve
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Points: 0 in 18.2 min, Sep 29 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 0 of 5 games against MTL on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 0.5

Average: 1.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −165

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −165, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1247 books	+1052 books	7/10
+3705 books	pick'em only	4/10
+13002 books	—	1/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet2 min ago	−122Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−122Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−122Best	—
Bovada2 min ago	−124	—
FanDuel3 min ago	−138	—
DraftKings2 min ago	−145	+105Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−145	+105Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−142 → −124 since first seen

Jack Roslovic's full game log and splits