Jack Roslovic

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #96

MTL @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1857 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L20 · Without Tavares

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of 10 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at ANA, 2026-04-26: 2, hit, 13.3 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-04-28: 2, hit, 12.3 min (not counted)
at ANA, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 14.4 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 2, hit, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 2, hit, 14.9 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 2, hit, 14.8 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 4, missed, 17.8 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 3, missed, 17.5 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 5, missed, 15.4 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 17.6 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 5, missed, 19.1 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 5, missed, 15.9 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 15.2 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 15.7 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 16 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 15.6 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 18.7 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 17.5 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 17.7 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-03: 4, missed, 18.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
John Tavares: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 10; with him: 4 of 7 (17 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 8 of 14 (17 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Under 2.5 without him: 10 of 17; with him: no games (17 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jacob Fowler (Expected)
Saves: 249 of 270 (.922) over his last 10 games · 6 of MTL's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCInjured Reserve
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Shots on Goal: 2 in 18.2 min, Sep 29 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against MTL on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Under 2.5

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −174 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −146, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−14503 books	—	1/10
−2353 books	—	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1357 books	−1855 books	6/10
+3303 books	—	7/10
+8001 book	—	8/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+132	−174Best
DraftKings2 min ago	+135	−185
Pinnacle2 min ago	+135	−185
Bally Bet2 min ago	+138Best	−200
betPARX4 min ago	+138Best	−200
BetRivers2 min ago	+138Best	—
Bovada2 min ago	+134	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Jack Roslovic's full game log and splits