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Drake Batherson

Ottawa Senators · RW · #19

OTT @ BUF · Tomorrow 7:30 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −2052 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightOpposing goalie

    Colten Ellis (Expected)

    Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7

  • Teammate out

    William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)

    Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 12; with him: 3 of 4 (16 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)

    Under 2.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 25 of 38 (41 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs forwards

    BUF allow 20.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 12th most of 32

    14 games · last 10 games: 22.7, 5th most

Game log against Under 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs STL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 17.7 min
  2. vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 2, hit, 20 min
  3. at PHI, 2026-10-17: 4, missed, 20 min
  4. vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 17.7 min
  5. vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 18.2 min
  6. vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 14.7 min
  7. at VGK, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 17.4 min
  8. at LA, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 19 min
  9. at SJ, 2026-10-31: 4, missed, 16.2 min
  10. at ANA, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 16.3 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 5 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Tim StutzleC

  • Jake SandersonD

  • Shane PintoC

  • William EklundLWInjured Reserve

  • Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Shots on Goal: 0 in 15.3 min, Apr 2 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.3
−0.2 vs line
Median
2.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
67%
at −205
Books’ fair
63%
margin removed
Our chance
60%
estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −205 the price is worse than our fair −151, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−12002 books—0/10
−2072 books—4/10
+1542 books−2051 book5/10
+3752 books—8/10
+6751 book—10/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel3 min ago+154Best−205Best
Bovada9 min ago+154Best—

Prices as of 11:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under −164 → −205 since first seen

Drake Batherson's full game log and splits