Drake Batherson

Ottawa Senators · RW · #19

OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1842 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Over 0.5 without him: 10 of 12; with him: 2 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 3; with him: 25 of 38 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 7.21 points a game to forwards: 7th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 6.70, 12th most

90%9 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

vs STL, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 17.7 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 20 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 20 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 17.7 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 18.2 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 4, cleared, 14.7 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 17.4 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 19 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 16.2 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 1, cleared, 16.3 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Jake SandersonD
Shane PintoC
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Points: 0 in 15.3 min, Apr 2 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 8 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −184
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −176

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −176, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1842 books	+1151 book	9/10
+2852 books	—	2/10
+10001 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings10 min ago	−155Best	+115Best
FanDuel3 min ago	−184	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −186 → −184 since first seen

Drake Batherson's full game log and splits