Dawson Mercer

Winnipeg Jets · C · #91

VAN @ WPG · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1505 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

67%4 of 6L20 · Without Morrissey

Under 0.5 Points hit in 4 of 6 games without Josh Morrissey (his last 20 games).

vs PIT, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 17.4 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-11: 1, missed, 21 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-12: 2, missed, 18.9 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-14: 0, hit, 16.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-01: 0, hit, 16.1 min (not counted)
at NYI, 2026-10-03: 0, hit, 15 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 11.1 min (not counted)
vs VAN, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 14.2 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-12: 0, hit, 13.8 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs NYR, 2026-10-15: 2, missed, 15.9 min (not counted)
at WSH, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 17.1 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 16.6 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 13.9 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 15.4 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 16.1 min
at TB, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 14.6 min
at FLA, 2026-10-30: 1, missed, 18.2 min
at CAR, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 15.7 min
at MTL, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 19.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Josh Morrissey: Injured Reserve (wrist)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 9.06 points a game to forwards: the most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 8.60, 3rd most
Teammate out
Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with WPG; before that, NJ
Under 0.5 with WPG: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Kyle ConnorLW
Mark ScheifeleC
Josh MorrisseyDInjured Reserve
Vladislav NamestnikovCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Jets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Mercer didn't play the Mar 7 meeting; points the last time Mercer faced them: 0 (Oct 10)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against VAN on record

L20 · Without Morrissey · Under 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −150 the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Morrissey

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1065 books	−1501 book	4/6
+4405 books	—	6/6
+30001 book	—	6/6

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+110	−150Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	−106	—
betPARX1 min ago	−106	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−106	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+116Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:17 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Dawson Mercer's full game log and splits