Dawson Mercer

Winnipeg Jets · C · #91

VAN @ WPG · Thu, Nov 5 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1401 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

17%1 of 6L20 · Without Morrissey

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 1 of 6 games without Josh Morrissey (his last 20 games).

vs PIT, 2026-04-09: 0, missed, 17.4 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-11: 3, cleared, 21 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-12: 5, cleared, 18.9 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-14: 2, missed, 16.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-01: 3, cleared, 16.1 min (not counted)
at NYI, 2026-10-03: 3, cleared, 15 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2026-10-06: 2, missed, 11.1 min (not counted)
vs VAN, 2026-10-10: 3, cleared, 14.2 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-12: 1, missed, 13.8 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs NYR, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 15.9 min (not counted)
at WSH, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 17.1 min (not counted)
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 16.6 min (not counted)
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 13.9 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 15.4 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 16.1 min
at TB, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 14.6 min
at FLA, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 18.2 min
at CAR, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 15.7 min
at MTL, 2026-11-03: 2, missed, 19.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different yesterday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Josh Morrissey: Injured Reserve (wrist)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
YesterdayDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 24.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: the most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 24.4, the most
Teammate out
Vladislav Namestnikov: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with WPG; before that, NJ
Over 2.5 with WPG: 1 of 6; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Kyle ConnorLW
Mark ScheifeleC
Josh MorrisseyDInjured Reserve
Vladislav NamestnikovCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Jets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Mercer didn't play the Mar 7 meeting; shots on goal the last time Mercer faced them: 3 (Oct 10)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against VAN on record

L20 · Without Morrissey · Over 2.5

Average: 1.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 17%; 1 of 6
Price implies: 42%; at +140
Books’ fair: 39%; margin removed
Time on ice: 16.6; 6 games · 18.2 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 39%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Morrissey

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9001 book	—	5/6
−2051 book	—	4/6
+1401 book	−1901 book	1/6
+3501 book	—	0/6
+8001 book	—	0/6
+20001 book	—	0/6

Compare 1 sportsbook at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings6 hr ago	+140Best	−190Best

Prices as of 7:27 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

1.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Dawson Mercer's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:28 PM ET.