Connor McDavid

Edmonton Oilers · C · #97

EDM @ NJ · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1555 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (Confirmed)
Saves: 197 of 224 (.879) over his last 10 games · 2 of NJ's last 10 starts · Jake Allen started 5
Teammate out
Matt Savoie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 63 of 88 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zach Hyman: Injured Reserve (neck)
Over 2.5 without him: 27 of 40; with him: 57 of 79 (119 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
NJ allow 17.1 shots on goal a game to forwards: 29th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 15.9, 31st most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

at LA, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 21.6 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-15: 2, missed, 25.9 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 19.9 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-20: 4, cleared, 25.5 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 25 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 22.5 min
vs DET, 2026-10-26: 2, missed, 26.5 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 18.8 min
at NYI, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 23.3 min
at NYR, 2026-11-01: 6, cleared, 23.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NJ in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 1 of 3 against NJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L10

Leon DraisaitlC
Evan BouchardD
Vasily PodkolzinRW
Matt SavoieCInjured Reserve
Zach HymanLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Oilers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

Shots on Goal: 4 in 25.3 min, Jan 20 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against NJ on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3; +0.5 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−30001 book	—	10/10
−5503 books	—	10/10
−1555 books	+1103 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	2/10
+1344 books	−1753 books	2/10
+3003 books	—	1/10
+6003 books	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−155Best	+110
betPARX2 min ago	−155Best	+110
BetRivers2 min ago	−155Best	—
Bovada8 min ago	−170	+130Best
DraftKings13 min ago	−190	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

Connor McDavid's full game log and splits