Connor Bedard
CHI @ TB · Today 7:00 PM
Game log against Over 2.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.
What's different today
Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick4 of his last 5 came with Patrick Kane playing; Kane is out today. Without him: Over 2.5 in 1 of 1.
TodayTeammate out
Patrick Kane: Out (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 6 of 9 (10 games as teammates). A small sample.
TodayDefense vs forwards
TB allow 16.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 31st most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 16.5, 28th most
TodayRest · back-to-back
Blackhawks played the day before (at FLA): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Bowen Byram: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 2.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 1 of 1 (10 games as teammates)
Splits
Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against TB in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 2.5 · L10Roman KantserovRW
Patrick KaneRWOut
Anton FrondellC
Bowen ByramDInjured Reserve
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Blackhawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs TB
Shots on Goal: 0 in 21.6 min, Jan 23 (home)
Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against TB on record
L10 · Over 2.5
- Average
- 3.2
- +0.7 vs line
- Median
- 3
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −130
Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −22002 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −3302 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1206 books | −1185 books | 7/10 | |
| +1902 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +4252 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +9001 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +18001 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | −110Best | −118 |
| DraftKings5 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −117 | −113Best |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −120 | −118 |
| betPARX3 min ago | −120 | −118 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −120 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:36 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5+100 → −120 since first seen