Collin Graf

San Jose Sharks · RW · #51

CGY @ SJFlames @ Sharks · Today 9:00 PM ET

The line

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal

−1627 sportsbooksbest −120

Game log

Under 1.5

Under 1.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs BOS: 2, missed
at NSH: 0, hit
at DET: 1, hit
at TOR: 2, missed
at MTL: 3, missed
at OTT: 3, missed
at BOS: 1, hit
vs BUF: 1, hit
vs VAN: 1, hit
vs OTT: 0, hit

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 shots on goal.

Home and away

L10 · Under 1.5

Hometonight

75%

3 of 4

Away

50%

3 of 6

L10 · Under 1.5 Shots on Goal

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 62%; −162, 7 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada4 min ago	−110	−120Best
Pinnacle4 min ago	+114	−152
Bally Bet4 min ago	+117	−162
betPARX4 min ago	+117	−162
DraftKings4 min ago	+125Best	−165
BetRivers1 min ago	+117	—
FanDuel1 min ago	−114	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price