Clayton Keller

Utah Mammoth · RW · #9

UTAH @ OTT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2057 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (6 of 6 on the road).

at EDM, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 16.9 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 16.7 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 2, cleared, 19.1 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 16.1 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 21.8 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 17.9 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 19.3 min
at TOR, 2026-11-03: 3, cleared, 18.8 min
at MTL, 2026-11-05: 1, cleared, 22.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Kailer Yamamoto: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 21 of 31; with him: 44 of 74 (105 games as teammates)
Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 10; with him: 56 of 95 (105 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Samuel Ersson (Expected)
Saves: 186 of 210 (.886) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
OTT allow 6.18 points a game to forwards: 20th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 6.20, 17th most

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Mikhail SergachevD
Nick SchmaltzC
Logan CooleyC
Kailer YamamotoRWInjured Reserve
John MarinoDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Points: 2 in 22.5 min, Jan 7 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against OTT on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −205
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 69%; estimate · fair −218

Research, not a pick. At −200 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −218, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2057 books	+1702 books	8/10
+2306 books	pick'em only	4/10
+7006 books	—	1/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bovada4 min ago	−200Best	—
Bally Bet4 min ago	−205	—
betPARX5 min ago	−205	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−205	—
DraftKings5 min ago	−230	+170Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−230	—
Pinnacle5 min ago	−230	+170Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−215 → −205 since first seen

Clayton Keller's full game log and splits