Brock Nelson

Colorado Avalanche · C · #11

COL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1577 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Avalanche played last night (at CHI): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 0.5 without him: 6 of 8; with him: 46 of 102 (110 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Confirmed)
Saves: 178 of 207 (.860) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 6.83 points a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
12 games · last 10 games: 6.70, 11th most

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at DAL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 19.7 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 1, missed, 23 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 1, missed, 20.5 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 18.8 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.5 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 0, hit, 18.4 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 16.5 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 16.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 13.6 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 5 against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Martin NecasC
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Points: 0 in 18.4 min, Jan 10 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −157
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+1237 books	−1572 books	6/10
+5756 books	—	10/10
+17001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle1 min ago	+115	−155Best
DraftKings6 min ago	+120	−160
Bally Bet1 min ago	+123Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	+123Best	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+123Best	—
Bovada1 min ago	+123Best	—
FanDueljust now	−104	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:13 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Brock Nelson's full game log and splits