Brock Nelson

Colorado Avalanche · C · #11

COL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Avalanche played last night (at CHI): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: 63 of 101 (109 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jet Greaves started CBJ's last game
Saves: 188 of 212 (.887) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts · no probable starter posted yet
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 18.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 22nd most of 32
12 games · last 10 games: 18.3, 24th most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at DAL, 2026-10-13: 5, cleared, 19.7 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 2, cleared, 23 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 1, missed, 20.5 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 3, cleared, 18.8 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.5 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 18.4 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 16.5 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 16.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 13.6 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 17 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Martin NecasC
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Shots on Goal: 1 in 18.4 min, Jan 10 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Time on ice: 18.2; 10 games · 19.4 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4751 book	—	9/10
−1153 books	−1153 books	6/10
+2601 book	—	4/10
+6501 book	—	1/10
+18001 book	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet1 hr ago	−115Best	−121
DraftKings1 hr ago	−115Best	−115
Pinnacle1 hr ago	−121	−109Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −128 → −115 since first seen

Brock Nelson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.