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Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #21

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1466 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)

    Under 2.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: 47 of 70 (83 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)

    Under 2.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 48 of 73 (76 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    John Gibson (Expected)

    Saves: 191 of 222 (.860) over his last 10 games · 6 of DET's last 10 starts

  • Defense vs forwards

    DET allow 17.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 27th most of 32

    15 games · last 10 games: 17.5, 27th most

Game log against Under 2.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

  1. vs MIN, 2026-10-08: 2, hit, 17.6 min
  2. at NYI, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 19 min
  3. at NYR, 2026-10-13: 5, missed, 20.2 min
  4. vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 18.6 min
  5. vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 17.1 min
  6. at VGK, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 16.7 min
  7. at COL, 2026-10-23: 3, missed, 20.8 min
  8. at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 18.6 min
  9. vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 20.2 min
  10. at NSH, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 23.2 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 8 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Brandon HagelLW

  • Nikita KucherovRW

  • Jake GuentzelC

  • Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

  • Zemgus GirgensonsCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Shots on Goal: 2 in 16.2 min, Apr 13 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.1
−0.4 vs line
Median
2
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
59%
at −146
Books’ fair
55%
margin removed
Our chance
56%
estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −140 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−15762 books—1/10
−2752 books—4/10
+1106 books−1465 books6/10
+2672 books—9/10
+6152 books—9/10
+14001 book—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
DraftKings8 min ago+105−140Best
Pinnacle3 min ago+106−140Best
FanDuel4 min ago+112Best−146
Bally Bet3 min ago+110−155
betPARX2 min ago+110−155
BetRivers2 min ago+110—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 2:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Brayden Point's full game log and splits