Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #21

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2057 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 37 of 70 (83 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 3; with him: 39 of 73 (76 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
John Gibson (Expected)
Saves: 191 of 222 (.860) over his last 10 games · 6 of DET's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
DET allow 6.53 points a game to forwards: 14th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.60, 15th most

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 at home).

vs MIN, 2026-10-08: 1, cleared, 17.6 min
at NYI, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 19 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 20.2 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 1, cleared, 18.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 17.1 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 16.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 2, cleared, 20.8 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 18.6 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 20.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 23.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L10

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Brandon HagelLW
Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve
Zemgus GirgensonsCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Points: 1 in 16.2 min, Apr 13 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −205
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −200 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −166, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2057 books	+1472 books	7/10
+2226 books	pick'em only	2/10
+7006 books	—	0/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle1 min ago	−200Best	+145
Bally Bet1 min ago	−205	—
betPARX1 min ago	−205	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−205	—
Bovada7 min ago	−205	—
DraftKings1 min ago	−205	+150Best
FanDuel1 min ago	−250	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:08 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

Brayden Point's full game log and splits