Brandon Hagel

Tampa Bay Lightning · LW · #38

CHI @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1406 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at NYI, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 21.5 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 21 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 23.4 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 20.2 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 18.9 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 20.6 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 22.9 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 21.8 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 20.2 min
vs DET, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 22.1 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Arvid Soderblom (Expected)
Saves: 268 of 307 (.873) over his last 10 games · 1 of CHI's last 10 starts · Spencer Knight started 9
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 0.5 without him: 8 of 14; with him: 47 of 78 (92 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
CHI allow 4.13 assists a game to forwards: 7th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 4.00, 9th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 21.5 min · 2026–27: 21.5 (14 games)
Power play: 4 min last 5 · 4.1 2026–27

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 4 against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Brayden PointC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CHI

Assists: 1 in 23.8 min, Jan 23 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CHI on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −133 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1226 books	−1402 books	6/10
+6301 book	—	9/10
+22001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle18 min ago	+100	−133Best
DraftKings18 min ago	+105	−140
Bally Bet18 min ago	−122	—
betPARX6 min ago	−122	—
BetRivers7 min ago	−122	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+116Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:43 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Brandon Hagel's full game log and splits