Blake Coleman

Minnesota Wild · LW · #20

MIN @ PHI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1507 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Over 1.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: no games (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: 2 of 3 (16 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Dan Vladar (Confirmed)
Saves: 265 of 298 (.889) over his last 10 games · 5 of PHI's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
PHI allow 21.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: 5th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 19.5, 18th most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 on the road).

at WPG, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 14.6 min
vs STL, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 17.6 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 2, cleared, 16.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 17.6 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 14.4 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 5, cleared, 16.5 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 14.4 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 5, cleared, 15.5 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 16.3 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 16.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against PHI in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against PHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHI

Coleman didn't play the Mar 12 meeting; shots on goal the last time Coleman faced them: 3 (Dec 31, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against PHI on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7803 books	—	9/10
−1507 books	+1105 books	6/10
+1983 books	—	4/10
+4251 book	—	2/10
+11001 book	—	2/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada8 min ago	−145Best	+110
Bally Bet7 min ago	−150	+107
betPARX6 min ago	−150	+107
BetRivers5 min ago	−150	—
Pinnacle7 min ago	−157	+118
DraftKings9 min ago	−160	+120Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−160	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:51 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −155 → −150 since first seen

Blake Coleman's full game log and splits