Ben Kindel

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #81

BOS @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1265 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

33%2 of 6L20 · Without Rust

Under 0.5 Points hit in 2 of 6 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

at NJ, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 14.8 min (not counted)
at STL, 2026-04-14: 1, missed, 18.1 min
vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 0, hit, 11 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 0, hit, 13.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 0, hit, 10.3 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 11.8 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 0, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 14.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 2, missed, 18.6 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 1, missed, 19.6 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 17.1 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 0, hit, 15 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 15.6 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 16.5 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 16.8 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 14.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

6 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Bryan Rust playing; Rust is out today. Without him: Under 0.5 in 5 of 12.

TodayTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 12; with him: 58 of 81 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 7 of 8; with him: 1 of 4 (12 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 44 of 63; with him: 13 of 20 (83 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jeremy Swayman (Expected)
Saves: 238 of 263 (.905) over his last 10 games · 7 of BOS's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 20; Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 3 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Points: 0 in 11.8 min, Mar 8 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 3 games against BOS on record

L20 · Without Rust · Under 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 33%; 2 of 6
Price implies: 56%; at −126
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1105 books	−1262 books	2/6
	+5104 books	—	4/6

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings8 min ago	−110	−120Best
Pinnacle8 min ago	−105	−126
Bally Bet8 min ago	+110Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	+110Best	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+110Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: −125 → −126 since first seen

Ben Kindel's full game log and splits