Ben Kindel

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #81

BOS @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −2056 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%3 of 6L20 · Without Rust

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 3 of 6 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

at NJ, 2026-04-09: 1, hit, 14.8 min (not counted)
at STL, 2026-04-14: 1, hit, 18.1 min
vs PHI, 2026-04-18: 0, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 3, missed, 11 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 1, hit, 13.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 1, hit, 10.3 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 2, hit, 11.8 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 2, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 5, missed, 14.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 2, hit, 18.6 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 2, hit, 19.6 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 3, missed, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 2, hit, 19.5 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 2, hit, 17.1 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 1, hit, 15 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 4, missed, 15.6 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 16.5 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 16.8 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 14.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 2.5 without him: 8 of 12; with him: 60 of 81 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 2.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 2 of 4 (12 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 47 of 63; with him: 13 of 20 (83 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jeremy Swayman (Expected)
Saves: 238 of 263 (.905) over his last 10 games · 7 of BOS's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 20; Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 3 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Shots on Goal: 1 in 11.8 min, Mar 8 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against BOS on record

L20 · Without Rust · Under 2.5

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 3 of 6
Price implies: 67%; at −205
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −167

Research, not a pick. At −185 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −167, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−12001 book	—	1/6
−2102 books	—	2/6
pick'em only	pick'em only	2/6
+1436 books	−2054 books	3/6
+3402 books	—	5/6
+8001 book	—	5/6
+18001 book	—	6/6

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings7 min ago	+135	−185Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	+149	−201
Bally Bet7 min ago	+143	−205
betPARX6 min ago	+143	−205
BetRivers5 min ago	+143	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+154Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Ben Kindel's full game log and splits