Alexis Lafreniere
NYR @ SEA · Today 5:00 PM
Game log against Under 2.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.
What's different today
Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Sean Durzi: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 8 of 14 (17 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Philipp Grubauer (Expected)
Saves: 217 of 246 (.882) over his last 10 games · 6 of SEA's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
SEA allow 21.8 shots on goal a game to forwards: 4th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 21.8, 6th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.6 min · 2026–27: 18.6 (17 games)
Power play: 1.8 min last 5 · 3 2026–27
Splits
Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against SEA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 against SEA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 2.5 · L10Adam FoxD
Mika ZibanejadC
J.T. MillerLW
Sean DurziDInjured Reserve
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rangers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SEA
Shots on Goal: 0 in 14.3 min, Jan 12 (home)
Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against SEA on record
L10 · Under 2.5
- Average
- 2.5
- ±0 vs line
- Median
- 2
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 66%
- at −190
- Books’ fair
- 61%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −153
Research, not a pick. At −190 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −153, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −12003 books | — | 1/10 | |
| −2303 books | — | 4/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 4/10 | |
| +1367 books | −1904 books | 6/10 | |
| +3403 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +8001 book | — | 9/10 | |
| +20001 book | — | 9/10 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet8 min ago | +133 | −190Best |
| betPARX3 min ago | +133 | −190Best |
| DraftKings8 min ago | +140Best | −190Best |
| Pinnacle8 min ago | +140Best | −190Best |
| BetRivers3 min ago | +133 | — |
| Bovada8 min ago | +136 | — |
| FanDuel3 min ago | +136 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 11:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.