Alexis Lafreniere

New York Rangers · LW · #13

PHI @ NYR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1963 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs VAN, 2026-10-11: 2, hit, 19.3 min
vs TB, 2026-10-13: 4, missed, 19.4 min
at NJ, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 16.2 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 22.9 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-19: 3, missed, 17 min
at TOR, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 19.1 min
at OTT, 2026-10-24: 7, missed, 18.7 min
vs LA, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 18.5 min
vs EDM, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 17.8 min
vs STL, 2026-11-03: 2, hit, 15.1 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Opposing goalie
Dan Vladar (Expected)
Saves: 256 of 288 (.889) over his last 10 games · 6 of PHI's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
PHI allow 21.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 5th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 19.0, 21st most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.8 min · 2026–27: 18.7 (16 games)
Power play: 1.7 min last 5 · 3.1 2026–27
Rest
1 day off since Nov 3 vs STL

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against PHI in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 8 against PHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Adam FoxD
Mika ZibanejadC
J.T. MillerLW

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rangers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHI

Shots on Goal: 4 in 17.4 min, Mar 9 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against PHI on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −196
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −141

Research, not a pick. At −180 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −141, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13001 book	—	1/10
−2152 books	pick'em only	3/10
+1483 books	−1963 books	6/10
+3202 books	—	7/10
+7501 book	—	9/10
+18001 book	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings6 min ago	+130	−180Best
FanDuel6 min ago	+148Best	−196
Pinnacle6 min ago	+148Best	−196
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Alexis Lafreniere's full game log and splits