Alexis Lafreniere

New York Rangers · LW · #13

STL @ NYR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2066 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Sean Durzi: Out (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 8 of 14 (15 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
Joel Hofer (Confirmed)
Saves: 263 of 287 (.916) over his last 10 games · 7 of STL's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
STL allow 3.71 assists a game to forwards: 16th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 3.40, 21st most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.2 min · 2026–27: 18.9 (15 games)
Power play: 2.1 min last 5 · 3.1 2026–27

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at WSH, 2026-10-09: 0, hit, 18.8 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 19.3 min
vs TB, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 19.4 min
at NJ, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 16.2 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 22.9 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-19: 2, missed, 17 min
at TOR, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 19.1 min
at OTT, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 18.7 min
vs LA, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 18.5 min
vs EDM, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 17.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against STL in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 against STL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Adam FoxD
Mika ZibanejadC
J.T. MillerLW
Sean DurziDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Rangers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs STL

Assists: 0 in 19.3 min, Dec 18, 2025 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against STL on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −206
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −164

Research, not a pick. At −197 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −164, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1486 books	−2062 books	6/10
	+9312 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle4 min ago	+146	−197Best
DraftKings8 min ago	+155Best	−215
Bally Bet4 min ago	+148	—
betPARX3 min ago	+148	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+148	—
FanDuel7 min ago	+152	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Alexis Lafreniere's full game log and splits