Alex DeBrincat
DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM
What's different tonight
Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Under 3.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: 46 of 84 (97 games as teammates)
TonightDefense vs forwards
TB allow 16.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 31st most of 32
13 games · last 10 games: 17.0, 28th most
TonightRest · back-to-back
Red Wings played last night (at FLA): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Under 3.5 without him: 13 of 25; with him: 40 of 72 (97 games as teammates)
Game log against Under 3.5
50%3 of 6L20 · Without Larkin
Under 3.5 Shots on Goal hit in 3 of 6 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 shots on goal.
Splits
Under 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 3.5 · L20Viktor ArvidssonLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Lucas RaymondLW
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDOut
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs TB
Shots on Goal: 6 in 17.9 min, Apr 13 (away)
Under 3.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against TB on record
L20 · Without Larkin · Under 3.5
- Average
- 2.8
- −0.7 vs line
- Median
- 3.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 3 of 6
- Price implies
- 63%
- at −172
- Books’ fair
- 59%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Research, not a pick. At −160 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −128, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Larkin| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5522 books | — | 2/6 | |
| −1852 books | +1341 book | 2/6 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 2/6 | |
| +1286 books | −1724 books | 3/6 | |
| +2702 books | — | 6/6 | |
| +5462 books | — | 6/6 | |
| +10001 book | — | 6/6 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings14 min ago | +120 | −160Best |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | +120 | −165 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | +128 | −180 |
| betPARX4 min ago | +128 | −180 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | +128 | — |
| FanDuel4 min ago | +140Best | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:48 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Under isn't priced at 3.5 right now.