Alex DeBrincat

Detroit Red Wings · RW · #93

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1546 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Dylan Larkin playing; Larkin is out tonight. Without him: Over 0.5 in 10 of 13.

TonightTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Over 0.5 without him: 10 of 13; with him: 53 of 84 (97 games as teammates)
TonightRest · back-to-back
Red Wings played last night (at FLA): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Over 0.5 without him: 16 of 25; with him: 47 of 72 (97 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Out (undisclosed)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 4; with him: 60 of 93 (97 games as teammates)

67%4 of 6L20 · Without Larkin

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 4 of 6 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs CBJ, 2026-04-07: 1, cleared, 17.9 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-09: 1, cleared, 16.1 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-04-11: 0, missed, 21.2 min (not counted)
at TB, 2026-04-13: 1, cleared, 17.9 min (not counted)
at FLA, 2026-04-15: 1, cleared, 18.6 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, missed, 19.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 1, cleared, 23.3 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 3, cleared, 18.8 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 1, cleared, 16 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 21.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 20.9 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 19.3 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 23.8 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 21.9 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 2, cleared, 18 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 18.8 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 18.7 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 points.

Count only

Over 0.5 · L20

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Viktor ArvidssonLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Lucas RaymondLW
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Points: 1 in 17.9 min, Apr 13 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against TB on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Over 0.5

Average: 0.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 4 of 6
Price implies: 61%; at −154
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −152, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1546 books	+1202 books	4/6
+3205 books	—	1/6
+9912 books	—	0/6

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet1 min ago	−148Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	−148Best	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−148Best	—
DraftKings1 min ago	−160	+120Best
Pinnacle1 min ago	−160	+120Best
FanDuel1 min ago	−166	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:31 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −170 → −154 since first seen

Alex DeBrincat's full game log and splits