Alex DeBrincat

Detroit Red Wings · RW · #93

DET @ TB · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1736 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 13; with him: 50 of 84 (97 games as teammates)
TonightRest · back-to-back
Red Wings played last night (at FLA): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Under 0.5 without him: 16 of 25; with him: 39 of 72 (97 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Out (undisclosed)
Under 0.5 without him: 2 of 4; with him: 53 of 93 (97 games as teammates)

50%3 of 6L20 · Without Larkin

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 3 of 6 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

vs CBJ, 2026-04-07: 1, missed, 17.9 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 16.1 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 21.2 min (not counted)
at TB, 2026-04-13: 0, hit, 17.9 min (not counted)
at FLA, 2026-04-15: 1, missed, 18.6 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, hit, 19.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 23.3 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 1, missed, 18.8 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 1, missed, 16 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 21.8 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 21.4 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 20.9 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 19.3 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 23.8 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 21.9 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 19.5 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 18 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 18.8 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 18.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Viktor ArvidssonLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Lucas RaymondLW
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Assists: 0 in 17.9 min, Apr 13 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against TB on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Under 0.5

Average: 0.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 3 of 6
Price implies: 63%; at −173
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −132, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
+1336 books	−1732 books	3/6
+7132 books	—	5/6
+25001 book	—	6/6

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings9 min ago	+125	−170Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	+132	−177
Bally Bet7 min ago	+135Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	+135Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+135Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+128	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:18 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Alex DeBrincat's full game log and splits