Aaron Ekblad

Florida Panthers · D · #5

FLA @ WSH · Today 12:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −2906 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at CBJ, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 21.5 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 22.4 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 20 min
at OTT, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 19.1 min
at PIT, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 21.4 min
at CHI, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 22.5 min
at WPG, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 19.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 21.3 min
vs DET, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 20.4 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 23.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Aleksander Barkov: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 61 of 84; with him: 8 of 19 (103 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Brad Marchand: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 26 of 35; with him: 43 of 68 (103 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Logan Thompson (Confirmed)
Saves: 236 of 266 (.887) over his last 10 games · 6 of WSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs defensemen
WSH allow 2.07 points a game to defensemen: 19th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 2.30, 11th most

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 6 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Matthew TkachukLW
Seth JonesD
Brady TkachukLW
Aleksander BarkovCInjured Reserve
Brad MarchandLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Panthers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Points: 1 in 26.1 min, Jan 17 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 74%; at −290
Books’ fair: 70%; margin removed
Our chance: 67%; estimate · fair −206

Research, not a pick. At −285 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −206, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+2056 books	−2902 books	7/10
	+13001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle7 min ago	+205	−285Best
DraftKings7 min ago	+210Best	−290
Bally Bet7 min ago	+205	—
betPARX1 min ago	+200	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+200	—
Bovada7 min ago	+205	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:13 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: −285 → −290 since first seen

Aaron Ekblad's full game log and splits