Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · WR · #4

LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1045 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

at GB, 2025-12-27: 4, hit, 5 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 4, hit, 6 targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 5, hit, 6 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 5, hit, 6 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 8, missed, 10 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 8, missed, 9 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 6, missed, 11 targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 8, missed, 11 targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 5 targets
vs JAX, 2026-11-05: 3, hit, 6 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Monday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

MonQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Injured Reserve (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 9 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Injured Reserve, toe); Joe Fagnano 2 (led the last game). Under 5.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 28 of 42; with another BAL quarterback: 4 of 9
Defense vs wide receivers
LAC allow 11.5 receptions a game to wide receivers: 14th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.3 targets · 2026: 8 (8 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 30% over 8 games this season
Rest
10 days off since Nov 5 vs JAX

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 2 of 2 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAC

Receptions: 5 in 8 targets, Nov 25, 2024 (away)

Under 5.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against LAC on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 5.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25003 books	—	1/10
−5604 books	—	2/10
−2204 books	—	4/10
−1045 books	−1043 books	6/10
+1854 books	—	7/10
+3354 books	—	7/10
+6504 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel18 min ago	−130	−102Best
Pinnacle19 min ago	−127	−104
betPARX19 min ago	−104Best	−127
Bally Bet19 min ago	−104Best	—
BetRivers19 min ago	−104Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−140 → −104 since first seen