Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · WR · #4

LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM

Over Under77.5

Under 77.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1141 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 77.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

at GB, 2025-12-27: 30, hit, 5 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 138, missed, 6 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 150, missed, 6 carries + targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 104, missed, 7 carries + targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 118, missed, 10 carries + targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 66, hit, 10 carries + targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 67, hit, 12 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 137, missed, 11 carries + targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 5 carries + targets
vs JAX, 2026-11-05: 23, hit, 9 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 77.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 0.6–138 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Monday

Under 77.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

MonQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Injured Reserve (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 9 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Injured Reserve, toe); Joe Fagnano 2 (led the last game). Under 77.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 24 of 42; with another BAL quarterback: 8 of 9
Carries + targets
Last 3: 8.3 carries + targets · 2026: 8.8 (8 games)
Target share: 28% last 3 games · 30% over 8 games this season
Rest
10 days off since Nov 5 vs JAX
Game lines
BAL −4 · total 38.5 (5 sportsbooks)
BAL's games this season closed at 46.3 on average (9 games)

Splits

Under 77.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Under 77.5 hit in 2 of 2 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAC

Rush+Rec Yards: 62 in 8 carries + targets, Nov 25, 2024 (away)

Under 77.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against LAC on record

L10 · Under 77.5

Average: 83.3; +5.8 vs line
Median: 85.5; +8 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At −114 the price is worse than our fair −112, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1141 book	−1141 book	5/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 77.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 77.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 77.5	Under 77.5
FanDuel14 min ago	−114Best	−114Best

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

77.5

72.5 → 77.5 since first seen