Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens · WR · #4

JAX @ BAL · Tomorrow 8:15 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price +1256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tomorrow

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TomorrowRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Doubtful, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 4.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 24 of 43; with another BAL quarterback: 6 of 8
Defense vs wide receivers
JAX allow 13.6 receptions a game to wide receivers: 5th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 9 targets · 2026: 8.3 (7 games)
Target share: 30% last 3 games · 29% over 7 games this season

70%7 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs NE, 2025-12-21: 7, cleared, 7 targets
at GB, 2025-12-27: 4, missed, 5 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 4, missed, 6 targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 8, cleared, 10 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 8, cleared, 9 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 6, cleared, 11 targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 8, cleared, 11 targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 5 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Dec 17, 2023 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.5; +1 vs line
Median: 5.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 44%; at +125
Books’ fair: 42%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −115

Research, not a pick. At +128 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −115, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33354 books	—	9/10
−5304 books	—	9/10
−1864 books	—	9/10
+1256 books	−1654 books	7/10
+2554 books	—	5/10
+5254 books	—	4/10
+11004 books	—	3/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel4 min ago	+128Best	−172
Bally Bet4 min ago	+125	—
betPARX5 min ago	+125	−165
BetRivers5 min ago	+125	—
Bovada4 min ago	+115	−150Best
Pinnacle4 min ago	+115	−153
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

+115 → +125 since first seen