Xavier WorthyQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · WR · #1

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1482 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at TEN, 2025-12-21: 2, missed, 3 targets
vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 0, missed, 3 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 3, cleared, 6 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 5, cleared, 7 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 2 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 4, cleared, 7 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 7, cleared, 7 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 6 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 6 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 6, cleared, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 30 of 39; with another KC quarterback: 0 of 2
Defense vs wide receivers
ATL allow 12.7 receptions a game to wide receivers: 7th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 6 targets · 2026: 5.9 (8 games)
Target share: 17% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receptions: 2 in 4 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.5; +1 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −148
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −183

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −183, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4001 book	—	9/10
−1482 books	−1022 books	7/10
+1881 book	—	4/10
+4001 book	—	3/10
+8001 book	—	2/10
+14001 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel18 min ago	−130Best	−102
Pinnacle19 min ago	−148	+112Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: No move since first seen