Xavier WorthyQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · WR · #1

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under26.5

Over 26.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1141 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 26.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at TEN, 2025-12-21: 41, cleared, 3 targets
vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 0, missed, 3 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 18, missed, 6 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 25, missed, 7 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 20, missed, 2 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 70, cleared, 7 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 73, cleared, 7 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 11, missed, 6 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 13, missed, 6 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 48, cleared, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 26.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 4.5–69.6 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 26.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 26.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 24 of 39; with another KC quarterback: 1 of 2
Defense vs wide receivers
ATL allow 158.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 6 targets · 2026: 5.9 (8 games)
Target share: 17% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ

Splits

Over 26.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 26.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receiving Yards: 17 in 4 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 26.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 26.5

Average: 31.9; +5.4 vs line
Median: 22.5; −4 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At −114 the price is worse than our fair −112, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3201 book	—	7/10
−2001 book	—	6/10
−1361 book	—	5/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
−1141 book	−1161 book	4/10
+1081 book	—	4/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 26.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 26.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 26.5	Under 26.5
FanDuel13 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

26.5

28.5 → 26.5 since first seen