Tyler Warren

Indianapolis Colts · TE · #84

DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1336 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at SEA, 2025-12-14: 3, hit, 6 targets
vs SF, 2025-12-22: 3, hit, 9 targets
vs JAX, 2025-12-28: 5, hit, 5 targets
at HOU, 2026-01-04: 5, hit, 8 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 3, hit, 5 targets
at KC, 2026-09-20: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 9, missed, 10 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 5, hit, 5 targets
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 9 targets
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 4, hit, 10 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 5.5 with Jones at quarterback: 12 of 18; with another IND quarterback: 5 of 5
Defense vs tight ends
DAL allow 5.6 receptions a game to tight ends: 13th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 8 targets · 2026: 7.7 (6 games)
Target share: 22% last 3 games · 22% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 5; −0.5 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −133
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12504 books	—	0/10
−4204 books	—	3/10
−1904 books	—	4/10
+1006 books	−1334 books	7/10
+1854 books	—	8/10
+3104 books	—	9/10
+5004 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Bovada8 min ago	−110	−120Best
FanDuel7 min ago	−102	−130
Pinnacle9 min ago	+100	−133
betPARX9 min ago	+102Best	−148
Bally Bet9 min ago	+102Best	—
BetRivers8 min ago	+102Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under: −130 → −133 since first seen