Tyler Warren
DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Under 41.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 41.5 Receiving Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 6.7–75.8 receiving yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 41.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 41.5 with Jones at quarterback: 7 of 18; with another IND quarterback: 4 of 5
Defense vs tight ends
DAL allow 51.0 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 21st most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 8 targets · 2026: 7.7 (6 games)
Target share: 22% last 3 games · 22% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX
Splits
Under 41.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 41.5
- Average
- 34.9
- −6.6 vs line
- Median
- 28
- −13.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −130
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 54%
- estimate · fair −118
Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −118, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4501 book | — | 4/10 | |
| −2454 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1254 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1123 books | −1302 books | 7/10 | |
| −1142 books | −1142 books | 7/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 8/10 | |
| +1404 books | — | 8/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 41.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 41.5 | Under 41.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX5 min ago | −112Best | −130Best |
| BetRivers7 min ago | −112Best | −130Best |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −112Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:30 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
41.5−114 → −130 since first seen