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Tyler Allgeier

Arizona Cardinals · RB · #22

LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1361 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 2.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

  1. vs NO, 2026-01-04: 1, hit, 2 targets
  2. at LAC, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 2 targets
  3. vs SEA, 2026-09-20: 2, hit, 2 targets
  4. at SF, 2026-09-27: 4, missed, 4 targets
  5. at NYG, 2026-10-04: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. vs DET, 2026-10-11: 2, hit, 2 targets
  7. at LAR, 2026-10-18: 1, hit, 2 targets
  8. vs DEN, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 3 targets
  9. at DAL, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 5 targets
  10. at SEA, 2026-11-08: 2, hit, 3 targets
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 2.8 (9 games) · up 32%

    Target share: 9% last 3 games · 7% over 9 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Jacoby Brissett led ARI in passing in 7 of 9 games this season

    Also led: Gardner Minshew II 2 (Injured Reserve, elbow, led the last game). Under 2.5 with Brissett at quarterback: 5 of 7; with another ARI quarterback: 1 of 2

  • New team

    9 games with ARI; before that, ATL

    Under 2.5 with ARI: 6 of 9; his last 10 games before: 10 of 10

  • Defense vs running backs

    LAR allow 5.3 receptions a game to running backs: 4th most of 32

    9 games

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAR

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Oct 18 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against LAR on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.4
−0.1 vs line
Median
2
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −136
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
53%
estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At −136 the price is worse than our fair −112, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2901 book—2/10
+1021 book−1361 book7/10
+2301 book—8/10
+4901 book—9/10
+8801 book—10/10
+15001 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel11 min ago+102Best−136Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −130 → −136 since first seen

Tyler Allgeier's full game log and splits