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Ty JohnsonQuestionable

Buffalo Bills · RB · #26

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1941 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 2.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

  1. at PIT, 2025-11-30: 3, missed, 5 targets
  2. vs CIN, 2025-12-07: 2, hit, 3 targets
  3. at NE, 2025-12-14: 3, missed, 3 targets
  4. vs PHI, 2025-12-28: 3, missed, 4 targets
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-01-04: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 4, missed, 4 targets
  7. vs NE, 2026-10-04: 2, hit, 2 targets
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-12: 4, missed, 4 targets
  9. at LV, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 2 targets
  10. vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 3, missed, 3 targets
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 1–4 receptions.

What's different on Monday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • MonDefense vs running backs

    MIN allow 3.1 receptions a game to running backs: 30th most of 32

    7 games

  • Quarterback

    Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Under 2.5 with Allen at quarterback: 27 of 38; with another BUF quarterback: 2 of 2

  • Targets

    Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 3 (5 games)

    Target share: 11% last 3 games · 10% over 5 games this season

  • Rest

    7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.8
+0.3 vs line
Median
3
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
66%
at −194
Books’ fair
62%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −194 the price is worse than our fair −146, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−12001 book—0/10
−2201 bookpick'em only0/10
+1441 book−1941 book4/10
+3101 book—8/10
+6401 book—10/10
+12001 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel8 min ago+144Best−194Best

Prices as of 4:36 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

No move since first seen

Ty Johnson's full game log and splits