Tucker Kraft
GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
What's different tonight
Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Jordan Love led GB in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 4.5 with Love at quarterback: 12 of 42; with another GB quarterback: 0 of 3
Defense vs tight ends
NE allow 5.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 17th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.1 (8 games)
Target share: 16% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season
Rest
9 days off since Oct 29 vs CAR
Game log against Over 4.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).
Splits
Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 4.5
- Average
- 4.4
- −0.1 vs line
- Median
- 4.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −113
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 6.1
- 10 games · 5.5 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 50%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −100003 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −8354 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −2654 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1135 books | −1143 books | 5/10 | |
| +1854 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +3704 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +7504 books | — | 0/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −112Best | — |
| betPARX6 min ago | −112Best | −117 |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −113 | — |
| FanDuel6 min ago | −114 | −114 |
| Bovada6 min ago | −120 | −110Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5Over −114 → −113 since first seen