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Tucker Kraft

Green Bay Packers · TE · #85

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder45.5
Under 45.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1185 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 45.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 45.5 Receiving Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. at PIT, 2025-10-26: 143, missed, 9 targets
  2. vs CAR, 2025-11-02: 20, hit, 3 targets
  3. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 65, missed, 6 targets
  4. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 15, hit, 3 targets
  5. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 26, hit, 8 targets
  6. at TB, 2026-10-04: 42, hit, 7 targets
  7. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 64, missed, 5 targets
  8. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 37, hit, 8 targets
  9. at DET, 2026-10-25: 48, missed, 6 targets
  10. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 53, missed, 6 targets
Under hitMissedThe 45.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14.9–71.3 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 45.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 45.5 with Love at quarterback: 24 of 42; with another GB quarterback: 3 of 3

  • Defense vs tight ends

    NE allow 52.4 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 16th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.1 (8 games)

    Target share: 16% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    9 days off since Oct 29 vs CAR

Splits

Under 45.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 45.5

Average
51.3
+5.8 vs line
Median
45
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
54%
at −118
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
51%
estimate · fair −104

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−4901 book—2/10
−3454 books—3/10
−1624 books—4/10
−1125 books−1184 books5/10
−1151 book−1151 book5/10
——5/10
+1154 books—6/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 45.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 45.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 45.5Under 45.5
FanDuel5 min ago−114−114Best
Pinnacle6 min ago−114−114Best
betPARX7 min ago−110Best−118
BetRivers5 min ago−112−120
Bally Bet6 min ago−110Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

45.5

46.5 → 45.5 since first seen

Tucker Kraft's full game log and splits