Tre Tucker

Las Vegas Raiders · WR · #1

LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1045 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Kirk Cousins led LV in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 3.5 with Cousins at quarterback: 6 of 8; with another LV quarterback: 11 of 42
Defense vs wide receivers
SF allow 10.7 receptions a game to wide receivers: 18th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6 (8 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at NYJ

70%7 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs KC, 2026-01-04: 2, missed, 6 targets
vs MIA, 2026-09-13: 2, missed, 4 targets
at LAC, 2026-09-20: 5, cleared, 7 targets
at NO, 2026-09-27: 4, cleared, 4 targets
vs KC, 2026-10-04: 4, cleared, 8 targets
at NE, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 5 targets
vs BUF, 2026-10-18: 5, cleared, 7 targets
vs LAR, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 12 targets
at NYJ, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 1 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 3.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 4; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −110, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10004 books	—	9/10
−2654 books	—	7/10
−1045 books	−1303 books	7/10
+2104 books	—	4/10
+4404 books	—	0/10
+9004 books	—	0/10
+14001 book	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−102Best	−130
Pinnacle5 min ago	−102Best	−130
Bally Bet5 min ago	−104	—
betPARX5 min ago	−104	−127Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−104	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:52 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over No move since first seen