Tre Tucker
LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
What's different on Sunday
Over 43.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Kirk Cousins led LV in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 43.5 with Cousins at quarterback: 4 of 8; with another LV quarterback: 12 of 42
Defense vs wide receivers
SF allow 129.7 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 25th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6 (8 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at NYJ
Game log against Over 43.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 43.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–106.3 receiving yards.
Splits
Over 43.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 43.5
- Average
- 55.3
- +11.8 vs line
- Median
- 43.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −113
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −111
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2504 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1394 books | — | 7/10 | |
| — | — | 6/10 | |
| −1133 books | −1172 books | 5/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 4/10 | |
| +1174 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +1804 books | — | 3/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 43.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 43.5 | Under 43.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −113Best | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | −113Best | −115Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −114 | −117 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
43.5No move since first seen