Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs · TE · #87

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under47.5

Over 47.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 47.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 36, missed, 6 targets
at LV, 2026-01-04: 12, missed, 6 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 71, cleared, 5 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 101, cleared, 11 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 59, cleared, 2 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 15, missed, 4 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 53, cleared, 5 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 44, missed, 8 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 67, cleared, 7 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 72, cleared, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 47.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 21.4–85.1 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 47.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 47.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 31 of 52; with another KC quarterback: 0 of 3
Defense vs tight ends
ATL allow 50.4 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 18th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 6 (8 games)
Target share: 20% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ

Splits

Over 47.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 47.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receiving Yards: 30 in 5 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 47.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 47.5

Average: 53; +5.5 vs line
Median: 56; +8.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4901 book	—	8/10
−3854 books	—	8/10
−2004 books	—	7/10
−1143 books	−1143 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1154 books	−1142 books	6/10
+1384 books	—	4/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 47.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 47.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 47.5	Under 47.5
FanDuel15 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle15 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bovada15 min ago	−115	−115
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

47.5

49.5 → 47.5 since first seen