Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs · TE · #87

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price +1246 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

30%3 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).

vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at LV, 2026-01-04: 3, missed, 6 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 3, missed, 5 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 9, cleared, 11 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 2 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 2, missed, 4 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 5 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 4, missed, 8 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 5, cleared, 7 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 4, missed, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 4.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 29 of 52; with another KC quarterback: 1 of 3
Defense vs tight ends
ATL allow 5.6 receptions a game to tight ends: 12th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 6 (8 games)
Target share: 20% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receptions: 4 in 5 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 45%; at +124
Books’ fair: 42%; margin removed
Targets: 6; 10 games · 6.4 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 42%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	10/10
−5304 books	—	8/10
−1864 books	—	6/10
+1246 books	−1624 books	3/10
+2454 books	—	1/10
+5004 books	—	1/10
+10004 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bally Bet12 min ago	+125Best	—
betPARX12 min ago	+125Best	−162
BetRivers12 min ago	+125Best	—
FanDuel12 min ago	+124	−166
Bovada12 min ago	+120	−160Best
Pinnacle12 min ago	+120	−160Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: +120 → +124 since first seen