Stefon Diggs

Washington Commanders · WR · #3

LAR @ WSH · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under44.5

Under 44.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1144 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 44.5 Receiving Yards hit in 8 of his last 10 games (6 of 6 at home).

vs LAC, 2026-01-11: 16, hit, 5 targets
vs HOU, 2026-01-18: 40, hit, 6 targets
at DEN, 2026-01-25: 17, hit, 6 targets
vs SEA, 2026-02-08: 37, hit, 3 targets
at PHI, 2026-09-13: 55, missed, 9 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-20: 47, missed, 6 targets
vs SEA, 2026-09-27: 33, hit, 7 targets
vs IND, 2026-10-04: 35, hit, 9 targets
at SF, 2026-10-19: 44, hit, 7 targets
vs PHI, 2026-11-01: 38, hit, 6 targets

Under hitMissedThe 44.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14.4–70.8 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 44.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs wide receivers
LAR allow 112.0 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 31st most of 32
8 games
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels led WSH in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Athan Kaliakmanis 1; Marcus Mariota 1. Under 44.5 with Daniels at quarterback: 2 of 4; with another WSH quarterback: 2 of 2
New team
6 games with WSH; before that, NE
Under 44.5 with WSH: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 8 of 10
Targets
Last 3: 7.3 targets · 2026: 7.3 (6 games)
Target share: 21% last 3 games · 21% over 6 games this season

Splits

Under 44.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 44.5

Average: 36.2; −8.3 vs line
Median: 37.5; −7 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1142 books	−1142 books	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
−1154 books	−1143 books	8/10
+1144 books	—	9/10
+1854 books	—	10/10
+2904 books	—	10/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 44.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 44.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 44.5	Under 44.5
betPARX4 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−117	−114
Bovada4 min ago	−115Best	−115
Bally Bet4 min ago	−115Best	—

Prices as of 3:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

44.5

38.5 → 44.5 since first seen