Stefon Diggs

Washington Commanders · WR · #3

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1456 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs wide receivers
LAR allow 8.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: the fewest of 32
8 games
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels led WSH in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Athan Kaliakmanis 1; Marcus Mariota 1. Under 4.5 with Daniels at quarterback: 2 of 4; with another WSH quarterback: 1 of 2
New team
6 games with WSH; before that, NE
Under 4.5 with WSH: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Targets
Last 3: 7.3 targets · 2026: 7.3 (6 games)
Target share: 21% last 3 games · 21% over 6 games this season

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −126, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	0/10
−5604 books	—	1/10
−2054 books	—	3/10
+1106 books	−1454 books	6/10
+2254 books	—	9/10
+4504 books	—	10/10
+9004 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Prices as of 3:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

4.5

−162 → −145 since first seen