Sam Darnold

Seattle Seahawks · QB · #14

ARI @ SEA · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under222.5

Under 222.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1141 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 222.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
ARI allow 237.6 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 15th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 37.7 attempts · 2026: 30.1 (7 games)
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 vs CHI
Game lines
SEA −11.5 · total 41.5 (5 sportsbooks)
SEA's games this season closed at 43.3 on average (8 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Under 222.5 Passing Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (5 of 7 at home).

vs SF, 2026-01-17: 124, hit, 17 attempts
vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 346, missed, 36 attempts
at NE, 2026-02-08: 202, hit, 38 attempts
vs NE, 2026-09-09: 13, hit, 2 attempts
at WSH, 2026-09-27: 379, missed, 45 attempts
vs LAC, 2026-10-04: 168, hit, 22 attempts
vs SF, 2026-10-11: 195, hit, 29 attempts
at DEN, 2026-10-15: 278, missed, 51 attempts
vs KC, 2026-10-25: 257, missed, 28 attempts
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 188, hit, 34 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 222.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 74–363.7 passing yards.

Splits

Under 222.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ARI in his last 10; Under 222.5 hit in 2 of 4 against ARI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ARI

Darnold didn't play the Sep 20 meeting; passing yards the last time Darnold faced them: 178 (Nov 9, 2025)

Under 222.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against ARI on record

L10 · Under 222.5

Average: 215; −7.5 vs line
Median: 198.5; −24 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −107

Research, not a pick. At −114 the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9001 book	—	2/10
−4201 book	—	3/10
−2101 book	—	5/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
−1101 book	—	6/10
+1681 book	—	6/10
+2901 book	—	7/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 222.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 222.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 222.5	Under 222.5
FanDuel9 min ago	−114Best	−114Best

Prices as of 4:07 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

222.5

Under: No move since first seen